A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
